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Hursh: My canola acreage prediction

Statistics Canada will release a seeded area estimate on June 30. This will be based on data collected in late May and early June.

I'm predicting a larger than expected increase in canola acreage.

In its preliminary seeding intentions report back in March, Statistics Canada predicted a 1.0 per cent increase in Canadian canola area to 21.8 million acres.

A lot has happened since then and canola prices have seen more strength than other commodities.

Canola also looks good from a crop insurance coverage point of view even in non-traditional canola growing regions.

Canola is already a large percentage of the cropland in central and northern areas of the grain belt limiting how much more it can increase.

However, I believe acreage may have increased dramatically in many southern regions.

In southwest Saskatchewan where I farm, I can’t remember seeing so many canola fields.

Canola here still isn’t nearly as common as lentils or durum, but there’s a surprising amount of canola and most fields look good.

Some canola is still cabbaging out, some is bolting and some is in early flower. A few fields are quite yellow already.

Watch for canola acreage to be above 21.8 million when the report comes out next Tuesday.

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