By Faith Parum
Key Takeaways
- Record imports along with the suspension of the tariff-rate quota for beef trimmings have not lowered ground beef prices for consumers. In fact, American Farm Bureau analysis reveals that since the presidential proclamation, prices remained the same as before the tariff-rate quota changed in 30 of 41 tracked grocery stores across the U.S.
- The market fundamentals that raised beef prices have not gone away. Tight cattle supplies and strong consumer demand continue to support higher consumer beef prices.
- The August presidential proclamation directs USDA and USTR to monitor whether qualifying imported beef is sold at a discount and allows the quota expansion to be reconsidered if that price relief does not materialize.
In late August, President Trump issued a proclamation to temporarily expand the tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for lean beef trimmings by 300,000 metric tons or about 661 million pounds. Beef began entering the United States under the lower tariff rate on Sept. 1, 2026. The proclamation “encourages” grocery stores to sell the beef at a 25% discount, without any retailer commitments or enforcement mechanism.
American Farm Bureau Federation tracked daily prices of 80% lean ground beef at 41 grocery stores in 22 states starting Sept. 2, the day after the proclamation went into effect. We selected a variety of chain grocery stores and independent grocers across America, in major cities to rural areas, to see how ground beef prices reacted to the additional supply of beef.
Across our sample, the average price of ground beef barely moved, going from $7.29 a pound on Sept. 2 to $7.13 a pound on Sept. 23 – a reduction of 16 cents or approximately 2%. The chart below tracks the lowest, highest and average price across all stores each day. The average line stays nearly flat for three weeks, never rising above $7.38 or falling below $7.13, even as lower-tariff beef entered the country.
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