July Inventory Data Suggests Beef Cow Herd has Continued to Contract

Aug 18, 2026

By Kenny Burdine

USDA released the mid-year cattle inventory report late last month, which estimates cattle inventory as of July 1. At the aggregate level, total inventory of cattle and calves was up slightly from 2025. But that number includes beef and dairy cattle of all types, so it does not tell any specific story very well. The beef cow herd was estimated at just under 28.5 million head, which was down 0.7% from July of 2025. This is the smallest July cowherd in this dataset that goes back to 1973 (see figure 1).

It is very interesting that this beef cow herd continues to contract, despite slaughter running so low. Beef cow slaughter was down by more than 500,000 cows (-17.6%) in 2025 and is on pace to be down by over 350,000 cows in 2026. In a typical year, beef cow slaughter runs about 10% of beef cow inventory. However, the implied cull rate was 8.4% in 2025 and is on pace for 7.2% if the current trend continues through the rest of 2026. The fact that we are culling the herd at such a low rate, but continuing to see decreases in the number of beef cows, suggests an extremely low herd entry rate. This means the beef cow herd continues to get older. Eventually, a larger proportion of this aging cowherd will have to be culled, which may partially offset heifer retention and slow the pace of future expansion.

The number of heifers held for beef cow replacement was estimated at 3.8 million head, which is up 3% from last July. This is the first increase in beef heifer retention since 2015, but it is still a historically low number. I like to consider heifer retention relative to the number of cows. As of July 1, heifers held for beef cow replacement were estimated at 13.4% of beef cow inventory. This is 0.5% higher than July 2025, but 1.2% lower than the average going back to 1973 (see figure 2). While the current level of heifer retention does not suggest widespread expansion, it does appear that heifer retention is slowly increasing. It will be the pace of beef cow slaughter for the rest of 2026, combined with the number of these heifers that do enter the cowherd, that will determine the number of beef cows in the herd to start 2027. A small increase in 2027 would not be a surprise.

Source : uky.edu

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