When it comes to today’s grain marketing, do old rules of thumb still apply? One of the oldest rules of thumb is to sell all stored grain by July. The rationale for this rule is that by July, markets start to look ahead to the new crops growing in the field. If expectations are good, then markets will have little interest in old crops. That’s the message we’ve heard most of the spring and summer months, especially when early crop conditions looked favorable. Now it’s July, and weather concerns are starting to influence production expectations. What does that mean if you still have stored grain on your farm?
USDA’s crop progress report indicates that conditions for the 2026 corn and soybean crops are similar to 2025. However, weather volatility is one of several concerns for grain markets heading into corn pollination and soybean pod setting. Increased export demands and tighter-than-expected stocks have added to market pressures, looking at the latest USDA WASDE report. The result is a strengthening of basis at many local markets.
In a recent report from Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture, basis for corn and soybeans is stronger than normal in regions across several states. Michigan is no exception, with strength being seen for both corn and soybeans.
The map in Figure 2 highlights that strong basis levels exist for soybeans in several regions of Michigan. The west central, central, east central and southeast regions all indicate stronger basis levels above the historical 3-year average. West central has a basis of -$0.15 per bushel compared to the historical average of -$0.27 per bushel. Central has a basis of -$0.12 per bushel compared to the historical average of -$0.15 per bushel. East central has a basis of -$0.38 per bushel compared to the historical average of -$0.48 per bushel. Southwest has a basis of -$0.21 per bushel compared to the historical average of -$0.45 per bushel. With basis strength at close to or better than normal in these regions, opportunities to maximize profits on stored grain may readily exist.
Both corn and soybean maps indicate opportunities may exist to maximize profits on stored grain. Keep in mind that basis can change daily as markets continue to adjust to new information. Weather, production expectations, and grain reports are just a few of the shifting market forces that influence grain prices. As market forces change, it creates the reality that pricing opportunities may only exist for a short time.
Source : msu.edu