US and World
It’s that time of the year again. January represents a time of cold, snow, ice, etc., etc. as the great North America corn belt hibernates over winter. Farm plans are being recalibrated and past cropping results reviewed. Meanwhile, marketing never stops. Prices have softened into 2024 under the burden of memories and basic fundamentals of big crops last summer. On January 12th, the USDA weighed in with their “final” estimate on how big last year’s crop really was.
USDA made big crops bigger. US corn production was set at a record 177.3 bushels per acre which was well above the pre report expectations. Total US corn production is now estimated to be 15.34 billion bushels. Soybeans also were increased to 50.6 bushels per acre putting total production at 4.17 billion bushels. Higher corn production translates into higher ending stocks which now sit at 2.162 billion bushels, which is up 31 million bushels from the December report. Globally, USDA lowered Brazil’s corn production by 2 MMT to 127 MMT. Argentina’s production was held at 55 MMT.
USDA’s soybean estimate was higher, but still the smallest soybean crop in four years. 4.17 billion bushels was still very good for last year’s smokey summer. With the increase in supply, US soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 were increased to 280 million bushels. USDA increased the Argentinian soybean production by 2 MMT up to 50 MMT, while reducing the Brazilian production 4 MMT to 157 MMT. American farmers planted 34.4 million acres to winter wheat this past fall, down 6% compared to last year and below the average pre-report estimate of 35.9 ma.
On January 13th, corn, soybeans and wheat were lower than the last Market Trends report. March 2024 corn futures were at $4.47 a bushel. The March 2024 soybean futures stood at $12.24. The March 2024 Chicago wheat futures closed at $5.96 a bushel. The Minneapolis March 2024 wheat futures closed at $6.99 a bushel with the Sept 2024 contract closing at $7.26 a bushel.
The nearby oil futures as of January 12th closed at $72.68/barrel up from the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $71.41/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.04 a US gallon, down from the $2.11 last month.
The Canadian dollar noon rate on January 12th, 2023, was .7470 US, virtually the same as the .7479 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada‘s lending rate remained at 5%.
Ontario
In Ontario the mild winter continued into the new year but that soon changed as of mid-January. The earlier weather had given opportunities for farmers to finish corn harvest in eastern Ontario. However, there are still a few fields scattered across the province that have not been harvested and this is likely by choice. We move ahead hoping for snow cover over winter wheat and benign weather throughout the rest of this Canadian winter.
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