By Jim Noel
Next 30-days...
The theme will be an active next 30-days with above normal temperatures (sometimes more than 20 degrees above normal) along with a series of progressive moderate to stronger weather systems. This will lead to a wet next 30-days with most areas getting 3-4 inches of rain and some places especially in the south possibly topping 6 inches. In the attached graphic, the rest of February will be wet with rainfall ranging from 1.5 inches in northwest Ohio to nearly 4 inches in far southern Ohio. This also means the windy pattern will persist with several windy storms over the next month! As for snow, there could be some mostly minor snows especially in the north but the cold outbreaks will overall be shallow and not last long.
4 inch soil temperatures are mostly in the 30s currently but more 40s will be showing up in the next few weeks with the warmer than average conditions. Soil temperatures are running above normal as well for this time of the year. As soil temperatures approach 50 ahead of schedule in March greenup/vegetation growth is expected earlier than usual.
Spring Planting Season Outlook...
La Nina is expected to end soon so a late freeze is not likely this spring. Soil temperatures and evapotranspiration will be above normal into spring but we expect the deviation from normal to not be as great in late March into April. However, the well above normal temperatures could resume again in May. The wet late winter and very early spring is likely to return quickly to normal rainfall as spring progresses. There is some risk of turning drier than normal at some point in spring. Overall, indications suggest a spring plant that is not delayed too much.
Summer Growing Season Outlook...
Warmer than normal temperatures are expected with a great deal of uncertainty in the rainfall patterns at this time. This will be updated more in the next month or two. There is some risk to a period of dry weather this summer but that risk currently is not high.
Autumn Harvest Season Outlook...
The harvest season is currently forecast to be warmer than normal with no strong indications of rainfall patterns as can be seen at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Stay up to date on flood, drought and seasonal briefings at:
https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/Briefings
Source : osu.edu