November WASDE Trims Corn Yield: How Much Can Yield Still Change by January?

By William E. Maples

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Tuesday, November 10. The main question heading into the report was what USDA would do with yields, especially after a September revision to corn production was announced in late October. This article recaps the changes for corn, soybeans, cotton and rice, and then looks at how much yields have typically changed between November and the final estimates in January.

November Report Recap

USDA lowered its projected corn yield by 1.6 bushels to 179.6 bushels per acre. That reverses most of October’s increase from 178.5 to 181.2 bushels and leaves the yield 3.4 bushels below USDA’s initial May projection of 183 bushels. Production fell 141 million bushels to 15.9 billion bushels. USDA also trimmed exports and feed and residual use by 25 million bushels each, so ending stocks fell 91 million bushels to 1,758 million bushels. The season-average farm price was lowered 10 cents to $4.60 per bushel.

Soybean yields were raised slightly, up 0.2 bushels to 53.3 bushels per acre, adding 12 million bushels of production. A 25 million bushel increase in exports more than offset the larger crop, and ending stocks fell 15 million bushels to 300 million bushels. The season-average price was raised 10 cents to $12.10 per bushel.

USDA lowered the cotton yield by 15 pounds to 775 pounds per acre, cutting production by 260,000 bales to 13.18 million bales. Domestic use was lowered 100,000 bales and exports were unchanged at 12.3 million bales. Ending stocks fell 100,000 bales to 3.7 million bales. The season-average price was lowered 1 cent to 76 cents per pound.

Rice changed little. The yield was lowered 4 pounds to 7,664 pounds per acre, while production was nearly unchanged at 157.6 million hundredweight, and ending stocks fell 100,000 hundredweight to 39.9 million hundredweight. The season-average price was lowered 10 cents to $15.10 per hundredweight, but long-grain price was unchanged at $14.00 per hundredweight.