Faltering Monsoon Is Central to the Pulse Outlook
For pulse markets, few things matter more than the Indian monsoon and this year’s version has been erratic. June rainfall came in well below average, and while a burst of heavier rain in late June and early July briefly narrowed the gap, volumes dropped off sharply again right in the middle of the main planting window. Rainfall amounts picked up again in late July, but the cumulative monsoon rainfall is still running 16% below the long-term average. There’s still a lot of monsoon season left, but the longer the shortfall persists, the more it matters for both of India’s pulse crops — the kharif crop being seeded now and the rabi crop that follows this winter.
The uneven rains are showing up clearly in seeding progress. Indian farmers picked up the pace when moisture improved, but the most recent weekly data still show planting of tur (pigeon peas) 11% behind last year and 10% below the average pace. Some of that ground can still be made up, but the planting window is in its later stages. Tur is the kharif pulse that matters most for Canadian growers, as imported green lentils can be used as a substitute.
India is a large country, and it’s also important where the rains are (or are not) falling. In the five main tur-producing states, monsoon rains since June 1 range from 1% above the long-term average to 35% below average, so the situation is hardly uniform.
The monsoon’s influence doesn’t end with the kharif crop; those same rains recharge the soil moisture that support the winter rabi crop, which includes chickpeas, lentils and peas, even more important to Canadian farmers. A deficient monsoon, especially later in the season, would raise the stakes for rabi plantings this fall, stretching the supply question across both halves of India’s pulse production.
Click here to see more...