The Chief Economist with EA Risk says a rebound in pork demand is what's needed to provide upward price support for hog prices moving forward.
The day-two keynote address yesterday, as part of Saskatchewan Pork Industry Symposium 2026 looked at the outlook for the hog market.
Dr. Lee Schulz, the Chief Economist with EA Risk, formerly Ever.Ag Risk Management, says although hog supplies are forecast to be similar to year ago levels, weakened demand for pork due to the economy, fueled by a higher cost of living has put substantial downward pressure on hog prices.
Quote-Dr. Lee Schulz-EA Risk:
Consumers are not keeping up.
If you look at real disposable personal income, it's been down four months, month over month here in 2026, pretty large decline here in September.
So, consumers are, are, are feeling it. I think they're seeing it, but again, they're also feeling it then in their pocketbooks and what that has done is it's impacted demand across the board.
Pork has, has been one of them and it's not just domestic consumers, it's worldwide.We've really seen, seen a pinch here.
So, I think this market has been beat down quite a bit as, as you look at the duration of 2026. From expectations to what has been reality has been much different.
We are pretty close to break even on average for 2026 which had been forecasted maybe a 20 dollar per head profit for all of 2026. So really it has changed quite a bit. I think it maybe has been a little bit oversold to the downside. I think there are maybe some overreactions in this marketplace, kind of more looking at worst case scenarios.
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