Summary of the August Cattle on Feed Report

Aug 27, 2021

By Josh Maples

USDA released the August Cattle on Feed report on Friday, August 20th. August 1st cattle on feed inventories for feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more is estimated at 11.1 million, a 1.9 percent decline from August 1st of 2020. Cattle on feed inventories have been running above 2020 levels for most of the year. This month’s report is the second consecutive month with cattle on feed inventories below 2020. Seasonally, on-feed inventories decline through September before feedlots reload during the fall calf market.

Feedlot placements during July are estimated at 1.74 million head, an 8.1 percent decline from July 2020. Historically, the seasonal trend has been for feedlot placements to decline in July from the previous month. This year, July feedlot placements were 4.1 percent higher compared to June. Compared to June, placements were 23 percent higher this month in Colorado, 27 percent higher in Iowa, 6 percent higher in Nebraska, and 5 percent higher in South Dakota.

Notice that most of the increase in placements came from drought-impacted regions. August and September are generally good months for yearling cattle coming off summer grass. This month’s report suggests that drought might be forcing some cattle to be sold earlier than anticipated. Digging into the placement data shows that most of the month-over-month increase came from cattle weighing more than 700 pounds.

Fed cattle marketings in July were 1.90 million head or 5 percent below 2020. For context, July 2021 had one less slaughter day than July 2020. Despite one less slaughter day, daily average marketings in July were only fractionally higher compared to a year ago.

In general, the report brought optimism to the market and reveals an improving feedlot situation. USDA is forecasting beef production to be down 1.2 percent during the second half of 2021. Declining feedlot inventories and lower feedlot placements, supported by an expected third consecutive year of declining calf crops, during the second half of the year would mean fewer cattle available for slaughter to begin 2022. USDA is projecting beef production to be down 3.2 percent in 2022. The third quarterly outlook video we shared last week provided more detail on our market outlook for the remainder of 2021.

Source : osu.edu

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