By Karn Dhingra
Texas shoppers heading to the meat counter this summer should expect beef prices to remain near record highs, but a new Texas A&M University report suggests the wild swings of last summer are unlikely to repeat.
The Texas A&M Food Price Predictor: Summer 2026 Meat Prices report, from the Texas A&M College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Department of Agricultural Economics, projects consumers will see a more orderly price pattern through October for most cuts of beef, pork and chicken.
Lead author Simon Somogyi, Ph.D., Dr. Kerry Litzenberg Sales and Economics Endowed Chair and head of the Department of Agricultural Economics, described the outlook as cautious for consumers rather than pessimistic.
“The signal is more cautious than bearish,” Somogyi said. “We think things are going to be reasonably stable in terms of price, but we keep seeing layer upon layer of worldwide events that impact price.”
Co-authors included David Anderson, Ph.D., professor and Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service specialist – livestock and food product marketing; Yong Liu, Ph.D., assistant professor; and Weifang Liang, a doctoral student – all in the department.
Beef prices high, but more predictable
The average retail price for ground beef is forecast to ease slightly, from about $6.71 per pound in May to $6.62 by October. Chuck roast and sirloin steak are expected to stay flat or edge lower, and ribeye, the priciest cut in the forecast, is projected to ease from around $18.81 per pound to $18.33. Brisket is the one beef cut expected to increase, rising from about $5.83 to $5.95 per pound.
The biggest wild card is the New World screwworm. Livestock trade, including beef cattle, with Mexico is closed due to New World screwworm, according to the USDA-APHIS.
Source : tamu.edu