Year-over-year (YOY) U.S. dairy exports increased 10% on a milk solids equivalent (MSE) basis in September, as robust global demand continued to fuel trade. The increase lifted year-to-date (YTD) growth one-half point to just over +7%, keeping volume on a record pace for the year with only a quarter remaining.
Export value this year has been even more impressive. September marked the first time U.S. suppliers shipped more than $1 billion worth of dairy products in a single month. September value surged 29%, lifting YTD value to $8.18 billion and all but guaranteeing the full-year total will exceed $10 billion for the first time.
On a quarterly basis, July-September 2026 was the best third quarter in history for the United States. MSE volume and U.S. dairy export value topped the former high from July-September 2022—narrowly in the case of MSE volume, handily in terms of value.
Even with the backdrop of war, exports to the Middle East rise
Trade data through the first three quarters showed that while ongoing hostilities in the Middle East created headwinds for U.S. dairy exports to the region, they failed to halt cheese and butterfat shipments (our top two products in the Middle East) or deter overall U.S. export growth.
U.S. butterfat exports to the Middle East increased 381% in the first quarter (which included the first month of fighting and the initial closure of the Strait of Hormuz), 330% in the second quarter, and 46% in the third quarter—all healthy gains. U.S. cheese exports to the Middle East fell 26% in Q1 (including 21% in the first two months, before supply chain issues became a problem), prior to rising 19% in Q2 and 5% in Q3.
While those topline numbers are fairly strong, they hide the supply chain gymnastics required to continue shipping to the region.
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