U.S. soybean supplies for 2013/14 are projected at 3.49 billion bushels, up 30 million on increased imports. Imports are projected at a record 65 million bushels based on trade reported through February and prospective large shipments from South America during the second half of the marketing year. Soybean exports for 2013/14 are increased 50 million bushels to 1.58 billion reflecting record year-to-date shipments and large outstanding sales. Despite relatively high prices and record harvests in South America, U.S. exports have remained strong, especially to China, where imports from the United States have already exceeded the previous marketing-year record. Soybean crush is reduced 5 million bushels to 1.685 billion with lower domestic soybean meal consumption more than offsetting a small increase in projected soybean meal exports. Seed use is raised in line with the record plantings reported in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report, while residual use is reduced based on indications from the March 31 Grain Stocks report. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 135 million bushels, down 10 million from last month.
Projected prices for soybeans and soybean products are all raised this month. The projected range for the season-average soybean price is raised 5 cents at the midpoint to 12.50 to $13.50 per bushel. Soybean oil prices are projected at 38 to 40 cents per pound, up 1.5 cents at the midpoint.Soybean meal prices are projected at $460 to $490 per short ton, up 5 dollars at the midpoint.
Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 504.5 million tons, up 0.2 million from last month with lower soybean production mostly offsetting increases for other crops. Global soybean production is projected at 284.0 million tons, down 1.4 million from last month but still a record. Brazil soybean production is forecast at 87.5 million tons, down 1.0 million from last month with higher harvested area more than offset by lower yields. Lower yields primarily reflect the effect of warm temperatures and limited rainfall through mid-February in the south. India soybean production is reduced 0.8 million tons to 11.0 million reflecting lower-than-average yields resulting from excessive rainfall during much of the growing season. Changes for other crops include higher rapeseed production for India and the European Union, increased sunflowerseed production for Russia, and increased peanut production for Argentina, Brazil, and India.
Global oilseed supplies, exports, and crush for 2013/14 are projected higher this month while ending stocks are projected lower. Higher rapeseed crush in China and higher sunflowerseed crush in Argentina and Russia more than offset reduced soybean crush in the United States, Brazil, and India. Global oilseed stocks are projected at 82.6 million tons, down 1.4 million.
Source: USDA