What should we anticipate in June Hogs and Pigs report?

USDA will release the results of their June hog inventory survey this coming Thursday. I expect it to show a slightly smaller swine herd than at this time last year with the market hog inventory down 1% or so. I expect the report to show farrowing intentions for the summer and fall to be down roughly 3%. Red ink for hog producers is the primary reason for the lack of herd growth.

Sow slaughter has increased in recent weeks. Over the most recent seven weeks with data, sow slaughter was up 7.4%. Over the same period barrow and gilt slaughter was up only 0.1%.

Any revisions in past hog survey numbers should be small in the June report. Since the first of March hog slaughter has been up 1.2%. The March Hogs and Pigs report predicted it would be up 0.5%. USDA has been doing a good job on their hog inventory calculations in recent quarters. Any number that ultimately gets revised by less than 1% is well forecasted.