Wheat Market Outlook - December 22, 2025

A Message from Exceed

We are honoured to be able to bring you the global wheat market outlook each week. We are excited for what 2026 has in store and look forwards to bringing top quality data to readers and listeners each week. Next market report will be Jan. 5, 2026.

Market Outlook - Wheat

• Cash markets in Saskatchewan pulled back at the start of last week on some weakness in futures, but as we enter the last few days of December, posted bids on stronger basis appear to be enticing grain into the system yet. This is showcasing relative strength for Canadian exportable wheat as the futures values have remained near their lows and with Minneapolis spring wheat setting new contract lows last week, prairie cash bids have remained relatively flat. Strong export demand continues to entice product in the system at current levels. Globally, the wheat balance sheet looks heavier than it did just a few months ago but much of the increase in stocks has been anticipated for several weeks already. The Argentinian and Australian crop harvest is nearly completed, and the market will shift to other news shortly. Market focus will turn to demand signals from the market and how the ending balance sheets might play out at the end of the marketing year. Next up we will be keeping a close eye on European, Black Sea and North American winter wheat crops. The wheat market will also face influence from overall futures market movement.  

Market Outlook - Durum

• As we enter the new year, durum markets will get a better sense of how the crop marketing year could potentially finish off.  Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada and exports are strong vs. where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Great Lake traffic will stall in January for a few months as the system undergoes its normal winter pause and we will see continued movement off our west coast terminals. Turkey has turned into a net importer of durum grain, and we will need to see how demand into some of our key players forecasts out. We will also begin to get a full view of how Northern African and EU winter crops are shaping up in our 2026 forecasts.