Market Outlook - Wheat
The market is generally satisfied with the Canadian and global crop for now. Limited drought or general weather concerns for most of the Canadian Prairies. The market is pricing in good supply for the upcoming Canadian crop despite the challenges being noted in east central Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba production regions. Peace region of Alberta has been on the dry side, and we need to keep focus on this area as well. The crop is still very early in Western Canada and needs to get through the next six to eight weeks of weather. We will have a Canadian acreage report on June 30, 2026, which will be highly anticipated by the markets as it gives the trade some fresh fundamentals to place positions on. Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat futures have been subject to fund repositioning since mid-May as the market became comfortable with crop production potential. The EU crop is largely understood, and the Black Sea crops are closer to being made than not. The market will maintain focus on these regions as they get closer to harvest but the focus will be on Canadian, Northern U.S., Argentinian and Australian growing conditions from here on out as those crops have the most growing season ahead of them yet. We would anticipate flat wheat markets for the time being and a weather event will be the catalyst to move the wheat futures markets.
Market Outlook - Durum
Durum outlook remains mostly flat. Saskatchewan durum is currently rated 90 per cent good-to-excellent in the last report, which keeps the market comfortable with Canadian crop prospects for now. The U.S. durum region listed with 55 per cent of the crop area now listed in drought, 55 per cent last week and 41 per cent the year prior. Morocco placed 170 per cent durum import tariff from June 1, 2026, until the end of July is also a negative demand factor, as it will support local marketing of their large harvest and limit nearby import demand and a signal of the large Northern African harvest overall. A large Western Canadian crop would keep durum markets muted into early winter at least until we have an idea on what prospects are for the next North African crop harvest. Limited upside seen at this time.
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