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Wheat Market Outlook - September 5, 2023

Sep 06, 2023

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Contrary to Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric, Russia has never exported more wheat than last crop year. The forecast for Russian exports by USDA is higher yet again for 2023/24.
For 2023/24, USDA forecasts Russia to produce 85 million mt of wheat (estimates by several other analysts are even higher) and forecasts Russian exports to reach 48 million mt. (Total global exports went from 195 million mt in 2019/20 to 214 million mt in 2022/23 and a forecast 212 million mt in 2023/24.)
If correct, Russian 2023/24 exports would be at 139 per cent of the 2019/20 exports, 13.5 million mt more than in that crop year.
The share of Russian exports of total global exports increased from, 21.5 per cent in 2019/20 to a forecast 29.3 per cent in 2023/24.
Meanwhile, exports by the RoW fell from 82.3 per cent in 2019/20 to an estimated 77.3 per cent in 2023/24.

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