USDA report lifts price outlook but trims expected farm support payments
The April edition of the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report showed little change from the March outlook. U.S. ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and cotton for the 2025/26 marketing year remained the same, while wheat stocks rose slightly. On a global level, corn, wheat, and cotton stocks increased, while soybean stocks declined marginally.
Although supplies remain stable, USDA raised its marketing-year average price of projections for all major crops. Corn prices increased to $4.15 per bushel; soybeans rose to $10.30; wheat climbed to $5.00, and cotton moved to $0.61 per pound. These higher prices benefit producers who still have unpriced crops.
However, higher projected prices also reduce expected government support. USDA’s Price Loss Coverage (PLC) payment estimates for the 2025 crop year declined across all four commodities. Corn and soybean payment rates dropped by nearly 20%, while wheat and seed cotton saw smaller reductions.
Lower PLC payments may strain farm income, especially as producers face higher costs for seed, fuel, and fertilizer. Final payments will depend on whether PLC or Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) offers greater support when payments are made in fall 2026.
Market reactions to the report were mixed. Future prices for corn and soybeans fell after the report; cotton prices rose, and wheats future remained unchanged. This shows that markets are factoring in broader economic and demand conditions beyond supply data.
As planting season begins, producers are encouraged to closely monitor both cash and futures markets. Historically, spring planting often provides strong pricing opportunities. Careful marketing decisions will be essential in managing risk and protecting farm revenue in the year ahead.
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