EIA outlook shows lower oil gas and fuel prices ahead – good for agriculture
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its latest outlook, providing a clear picture of how global and U.S. energy markets may shift through 2026. These updated projections highlight important changes in oil prices, gasoline and diesel costs, natural gas trends, and U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
The chart below shows the notable forecast changes reported by EIA.
Photo Credit: EIA
According to the EIA, global oil inventories are expected to keep rising through 2026, putting downward pressure on international oil prices. Brent crude oil is forecast to average $54 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026 and $55 per barrel for the full year. Although prices are projected to decrease, the 2026 forecast is still $3 higher than last month’s estimate, mainly because of updated expectations related to China’s inventory levels and global sanctions placed on Russia.
In the U.S. fuel market, retail gasoline and diesel prices are expected to fall in 2026, supported by lower crude oil prices. EIA forecasts that gasoline will average below $3.00 per gallon, marking a 10% decline from 2024. Diesel prices are expected to fall to $3.50 per gallon, which is 7% lower compared with 2024 averages. These declines may help reduce costs for transportation, agriculture, and daily consumers.
Natural gas is expected to follow a different trend. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price is projected to rise to nearly $3.90 per MMBtu this winter, driven by seasonal heating demand. For 2026, natural gas prices are expected to average $4.00 per MMBtu, a 16% increase from 2025. The rise is tied to higher LNG exports and limited production growth, which are tightening supply.
LNG exports remain one of the strongest areas of growth. The United States is expected to export 14.9 billion cubic feet per day of LNG in 2025, which is 25% more than last year. Faster-than-expected expansion at Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana prompted an upward revision in export forecasts. By 2026, U.S. LNG exports are expected to grow an additional 10%, strengthening America’s role in global energy supply.
Source: EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration)