Image above by Mohamed Hassan from Pixabay
The global grain and oilseed trading industry is undergoing a major transformation—and Canadian farmers should take note. A recently published study in the September 2025 issue of Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy discussed how the traditional dominance of a few multinational giants is giving way to a more competitive, diversified marketplace.
Every global market segment seems to be dominated by a so-called “Big 3” or “Big 4” group of companies, and the global grain trade is no exception, controlled by the “ABCD” firms: ADM (Archer-Daniels-Midland Company), Bunge Global SA, Cargill Incorporated, and Louis Dreyfus Company B.V.
These firms collectively control a significant portion of the global trade in essential crops, although their exact share fluctuates. These companies managed everything from sourcing and shipping to processing and marketing.
ADM, headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, is a global leader in agricultural processing and food ingredient manufacturing. It buys, transports, stores, and processes crops like corn, soybeans, and wheat into products for food, feed, fuel, and industrial uses. ADM is also heavily involved in biofuels and nutrition solutions.
Bunge, incorporated in Geneva, Switzerland, and headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri, is a major agribusiness and food company focused on oilseed processing, grain trading, and food ingredient production. It operates a global network of grain elevators, processing plants, and port terminals and is a key exporter of soybeans and vegetable oils.
Cargill, headquartered in Minnetonka, Minnesota, is one of the largest privately held companies in the world. It operates across agriculture, food, bio-industrials, and risk management. In grain trading, Cargill connects farmers with global markets and provides logistics, processing, and financial services.
Louis Dreyfus Company, headquartered in Rotterdam, Netherlands, but founded in France, is a global merchant and processor of agricultural goods. It trades a wide range of commodities, including grains, oilseeds, coffee, cotton, and juice. The company focuses on sourcing, processing, and transporting agricultural products worldwide.
The dominance shown by the Big Four, ABCD, has led to scrutiny and concerns about market power, especially in the context of food prices and food security.
But, according to the paper’s researchers, William Wilson, David Bullock, and Isaac Dubovoy, that landscape is changing fast.
The study used vessel nomination data—essentially tracking who’s shipping what and where—and the researchers found that market concentration is much lower than previously thought. They found that new players, such as those from Russia and China, had entered the scene, forming what the authors call a “competitive fringe.”
Three Types of Traders Now Dominate
The study identified three distinct clusters of trading firms:
- Global Giants—still active, but no longer monopolizing the market;
- Regional Specialists—focused on specific geographies or commodities;
- Emerging Entrants—often state-backed or vertically integrated, especially in Asia and Eastern Europe.
Rather than the previous dominance by the ABCD firms, this shift in dynamics provides more options for buyers and sellers—and potentially more “volatility” in pricing and logistics.
This newly evolving trade structure could have implications for Canada and its exports of grains and oilseeds.
With more buyers entering the market—and not just ABCD companies—it means more competition, which allows Canadian producers the opportunity to find and negotiate better prices or terms.
Politics certainly makes strange bedfellows. These days, there has been a shift in trade policies as global political tensions arise. Because of that, the previously preferred shipping lanes and destinations have shifted, which could affect export timing and costs.
The study also highlighted how access to real-time data is now a key competitive advantage and pointed out that Canadian grain marketers and co-ops may need to invest more in analytics to stay ahead.
What’s Driving Change?
The paper’s researchers pointed to major global events such as the war in Ukraine and shifting trade alliances as key drivers of this transformation.
Countries are increasingly looking to secure their own food supply chains, leading to more state involvement and alternative sourcing strategies, rather than trusting things to the ABCD companies.
For example, China has ramped up its grain trading operations, not just to meet domestic demand but also to gain more control over global supply chains. Russia, too, has become a more prominent player, especially in wheat exports.
The latest data from the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) and International Grains Council on Russia’s exports of corn, soybeans, wheat, oils, and meals is interesting.
Wheat’s 2022/23 exports were 45 million metric tons (MMT), showing a growth of 36 percent from the previous year. In fact, wheat production has nearly doubled over the past decade, driven by expanded acreage and improved yields.
Russia’s corn production increased in 2022/23 despite delayed harvests, but its exports fluctuate due to internal quotas and taxes, though production has grown steadily.
For soybeans, there is a rising domestic demand and expanded acreage driving growth. In 2023/34, it had 6.7 MMT, with a forecast of 7 MMT for 2024/25. The export average is 1 MMT/year over the past five years.
For sunflower oil & meal, Russia had a record sunflower output in 2022/23 at 15.5 MMT, and it has expanded its exports to China, Turkey, and Egypt, replacing the reduced Ukrainian processing capacity caused by Russia's war.
China is increasing its domestic production of soybeans and corn to reduce reliance on imports. And, export growth is not a major trend for China in these commodities; instead, its focus is on self-sufficiency and import reduction.
China’s 2025 corn production forecast is 300 MMT, up 1.7 percent from the previous year. Soybean production is expected to grow from 21.7 MMT in 2023 to 36.75 MMT by 2032, averaging ~5.5 percent annual growth.
China’s wheat production is forecast to grow from 138.5 MMT in 2023 to 143.9 MMT by 2032, averaging ~0.4 percent annual growth. The country’s sowing area appears to be decreasing, but its yield per hectare is improving.
For edible vegetable oil imports, expectations are for it to decline from 7.48 MMT in 2027 to 6.57 MMT in 2032, and there will be a shift toward domestic processing.
Looking Up
Another trend is the move toward vertical integration. Many trading firms are no longer just middlemen—they’re investing in processing plants, logistics networks, and even sustainability initiatives. This could mean tighter supply chains and more traceability, which may appeal to buyers looking for certified or sustainably grown products.
While these changes are happening at a global scale, there are practical steps Canadian farmers can take:
- Stay Informed: Understanding who the new players are and how they operate can help in marketing decisions;
- Leverage Data: Tools that track global trade flows, vessel movements, and commodity prices can offer a competitive edge;
- Build Relationships: As more firms enter the market, building strong relationships with exporters and brokers can open new doors.
The grain and oilseed trading industry is no longer a closed club. With more firms, more data, and more geopolitical complexity, Canadian farmers are entering a new era of opportunity—and uncertainty.
Canadian farmers and grain producers need to be flexible, proactive, and well-informed to succeed in a global grain trade that’s rapidly changing. It means being able to adapt quickly to such things as changes in trade routes, buyer preferences, or export regulations.
It means Canadian farmers need to explore new markets or work with emerging trading firms beyond the traditional ABCD companies.
It means adjusting marketing strategies based on geopolitical events or shifts in demand, such as the increased interest from China or disruptions in Ukraine.
Canadian farmers need to know what’s going on globally, including who the major buyers and sellers are—in this case, for grains and oilseeds.
They should also learn and use online data tools to track real-time prices, vessel movements, and export volumes.
And they need to understand global policy changes that affect trade—such as tariffs, sanctions, or sustainability requirements.
The old rules of grain trading are being rewritten, and farmers need to keep on top of the global playing field as well as their own growing fields.
A copy of the full report may be purchased and downloaded at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/aepp.13524.