Satellite-based monitoring is helping researchers assess Ukraine’s agricultural production, harvest progress and export potential despite disruptions caused by the war.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 disrupted agricultural production and the country’s ability to monitor crop conditions. With winter wheat and rapeseed already planted before the conflict began, questions emerged about how much farmland farmers could access and harvest.
To address gaps in traditional agricultural reporting, NASA Harvest turned to satellite imagery to track crop development, estimate planted areas and assess harvesting activity across Ukraine.
Under martial law, mandatory agricultural reporting was suspended, surveys of smaller farms stopped for security reasons, and information from Russian-controlled territories became increasingly difficult to obtain.
Satellite observations provided an alternative source of information to complement available government statistics.
Researchers initially identified winter crop areas by examining seasonal vegetation patterns captured through satellite imagery. Winter wheat and other cereals follow distinct growing cycles, while rapeseed displays recognizable seasonal changes, including flowering. These characteristics helped researchers distinguish winter crops from other agricultural land.
To improve accuracy, the team combined satellite-based crop maps with statistical sampling. Researchers examined selected locations to verify which crops were growing, allowing them to estimate planted acreage and account for potential mapping errors.
They also monitored changes in satellite imagery during harvest season to distinguish harvested fields from those left unharvested.
The analysis found that 94.1% of winter crops planted in Government-controlled territories were harvested, compared with 87.5% in Russian-controlled areas. Unharvested fields were particularly concentrated near the occupation boundary.
"One thing that stood out was that visible damage wasn’t a reliable guide to whether a field had been harvested,” said Shabarinath Nair, NASA Harvest’s South Asia Co-Lead. “Some damaged fields were harvested, while many unharvested fields had no obvious signs of shelling or burning. That made it important to detect the harvest itself.”
NASA Harvest continued monitoring winter crops over subsequent growing seasons, producing updated maps and acreage estimates for both territories. Between 2022 and 2023, winter wheat acreage in Government-controlled areas declined by approximately 9%, before remaining relatively stable.
In Russian-controlled territories, planted acreage experienced greater fluctuations, including a decline of roughly one-third in 2024 before partially recovering in 2025. By 2026, winter wheat acreage had increased by 41% in Russian-held territories compared with 2025.
Rapeseed acreage also showed substantial regional differences, with planting declining sharply in Russian-controlled areas before a gradual recovery.
Satellite estimates of winter wheat acreage generally remained within 5% of official Ukrainian statistics between 2022 and 2025, strengthening confidence in the methodology.
“In Government-controlled areas, we had SSSU numbers to compare against,” said Josef Wagner, NASA Harvest’s Fertilizer Management & Environmental Health Co-Lead. “In Russian-controlled areas, that reporting wasn’t available, so remote sensing gave us a consistent way to apply the same framework across the country.”
NASA Harvest shared its findings with Ukraine’s State Statistics Service, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
“The timeliness, objectivity, and transparency of information remain essential factors in shaping a balanced and effective agrarian policy," Taras Vysotskyi, First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, said.
"We acknowledge and appreciate the vital role of NASA Harvest’s solutions and calculations in assessing the real state of agricultural production development in Ukraine, ensuring regional food security, and determining the export potential to support global food security.”
Although cloud cover, mapping inconsistencies and difficulties identifying unharvested fields remain challenges, satellite monitoring continues to provide valuable agricultural information where conventional reporting is unavailable.
The initiative supports crop assessments, food security planning and evaluations of Ukraine’s agricultural production and export potential during the ongoing conflict.
Photo Credit: nasa-earth-observatory