Unseasonal outbreak of PRRS in Q2-2025 leads to tighter hog supplies and lower slaughter numbers
The U.S. hog sector is grappling with the effects of an atypical surge in Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) during the second quarter of 2025. According to the USDA, there is evidence that unusually high rates of PRRS in Q2-2025 and into June contributed to reduced hog numbers available for slaughter in July.
The Swine Health Information Center (SHIC) reported that Q2-2025 marked the highest number of PRRS outbreaks in the wean-to-market segment of the U.S. hog sector since 2013. This spike has had a measurable impact on supply, with July’s estimated federally inspected (FI) hog slaughter totaling 10.2 million head—3.9% below year-over-year figures.
“Despite their acceptance of the rampant PPRS disease issue which continues to cut into U.S. hog supply and slaughter availability, USDA is still overestimating production,” according to Farms.com Risk Management Chief Commodity Strategist Maurizio Agostino.
Agostino also points to seasonal trading patterns that may offer strategic opportunities amid the current volatility. “The seasonal technical trade in August is to buy October lean hog futures as of August 24th and hold until Sept. 25th for an 87% chance of a win (looking at the past 15 years data). The seasonal trade in September also is to buy October futures, as of the 12th of September and exit by the 25th for an 80% chance of a win.”
Historically, PRRS cases tend to decline during the summer months—June, July, and August—but Agostino notes that the 2025 increase is atypical. SHIC data supports this, showing a sharp drop-off in PRRSV-positive submissions after mid-June. The August SHIC report indicates a July reduction in PRRSV RNA positivity in both adult/sow and wean-to-market operations. However, it also highlights that “Overall PRRSV-percentage of positive cases was 3 standard deviations above state-specific baseline[s] in Iowa and Minnesota,” the top hog-producing states in the U.S.
The USDA’s June report categorized July-slaughtered hogs primarily in the two heaviest weight groups: the 180 pounds and over category, which was 1% below the previous year, and the 120–179-pound category, which showed a slight year-over-year increase. Despite these projections, actual slaughter numbers fell short, reinforcing concerns about the accuracy of USDA’s production estimates.
With quarterly pork production for the second half of 2025 expected to decline modestly due to tighter hog supplies and disease-related disruptions, producers and market participants will be watching closely for further developments—and potential trading opportunities.
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