More birds, strong demand and improving prices are helping the turkey sector recover, but disease and higher feed costs remain concerns.
After two years of shrinking supplies and significant disease challenges, the U.S. turkey industry is beginning to rebuild.
Turkey numbers and meat production are increasing in 2026, while relatively strong domestic demand, expanding exports and lower cold storage inventories have helped support prices and improve returns for growers.
The recovery is welcome news for producers who have faced years of disruption from Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) and avian metapneumovirus (aMPV).
However, an analysis from the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) suggests producers are not out of the woods yet.
Disease remains an important production risk, while higher corn and soybean meal prices could put additional pressure on margins heading into 2027.
Turkey Numbers Rise for First Time Since 2023
USDA estimates U.S. farmers raised approximately 198.5 million turkeys in 2026, an increase of about 5 million birds, or 3%, from 2025.
It marks the first year-over-year increase in turkeys raised since 2023.
Production remains heavily concentrated in a handful of states. Minnesota, North Carolina, Arkansas, Indiana and Missouri accounted for roughly 68% of turkeys raised in the United States this year.
USDA's October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) projected federally inspected turkey meat production at approximately 5.13 billion pounds in 2026, about 290 million pounds, or 6%, higher than 2025.
Production is expected to edge higher again in 2027 to approximately 5.18 billion pounds.
Despite the recovery, U.S. turkey production has not returned to earlier levels. Production totaled approximately 5.46 billion pounds in 2023 before multiple disease challenges contributed to lower supplies.
Demand Helping Support Turkey Markets
The increase in production is being accompanied by strong demand.
USDA projected U.S. turkey use at about 4.7 billion pounds in 2026, an increase of roughly 4% from 2025.
Exports are providing another source of support.
USDA's October estimates put 2026 turkey exports at approximately 461 million pounds, nearly 10% higher than the previous year.
Mexico remains by far the largest international customer for U.S. turkey. Through August 2026, exports to Mexico were 6.4% higher than a year earlier.
At the same time, turkey inventories have declined.
There were approximately 360 million pounds of turkey in cold storage on Sept. 30, down about 4.5% from 2025 and nearly 16% from 2024.
That combination of stronger demand and relatively tight inventories has helped support prices even as farmers raise more birds.
Turkey Prices Recover
USDA's Economic Research Service projects the 2026 annual average wholesale price for frozen whole hen turkeys at approximately $1.76 per pound.
That's about 30% higher than 2025 and nearly 88% above the 94-cent-per-pound average recorded in 2024.
Lower turkey production resulting from HPAI and aMPV was a major factor behind the price increase.
For growers, publicly available farm-level pricing information is limited because of the highly integrated nature of the turkey industry.
However, AFBF noted that USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service reported growers received an average of about 90 cents per pound in 2025, up substantially from 2024.
Federal Reserve producer price data also suggest returns improved further in 2026.
Those numbers indicate growers may have experienced some of their strongest returns since disease pressures began disrupting the industry.
Feed Costs Could Squeeze Margins
Better turkey prices do not necessarily mean producers can count on stronger margins continuing.
Feed remains the single largest production expense for turkey growers.
Raising a 38-pound tom requires approximately 75 to 80 pounds of feed, and feed can represent about two-thirds of the cost of raising a market bird.
USDA's October WASDE projected an average farm corn price of $4.70 per bushel, about 13% higher than 2025, while soybean meal was projected to average $340 per ton, up approximately 4.5%.
Those higher costs could become increasingly important if turkey production continues expanding and wholesale prices begin moderating.
USDA currently projects average wholesale turkey prices around $1.45 per pound in 2027, approximately 18% below projected 2026 levels.
Disease Still the Wild Card
Perhaps the biggest uncertainty remains disease.
HPAI continues circulating among wild birds, making migration periods especially important for poultry producers.
As of Oct. 27, USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service had reported 25 HPAI detections in poultry during October, including seven commercial turkey flocks. More than 250,000 turkeys were affected during the month.
That makes stringent farm biosecurity particularly important as wild birds continue their fall migration.
HPAI is not the only disease challenging turkey producers.
Avian metapneumovirus has emerged as a major concern because it can reduce weight gain and feed efficiency, potentially increasing both the amount of feed and the time required to bring birds to market.
According to research cited by AFBF from Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, aMPV became the most-reported disease problem in U.S. turkeys in 2024, affecting an estimated 60% to 80% of flocks.
Researchers estimated the disease reduced industry value by $2.88 billion that year.
What Should Turkey Farmers Watch in 2027?
The outlook going into 2027 presents both opportunities and risks.
USDA expects turkey production to increase for a second consecutive year, suggesting the industry is moving further away from the supply declines of 2024 and 2025.
But more production could also put downward pressure on prices, particularly if domestic consumption and exports don't increase at a similar pace.
For growers, three factors will be especially important: flock health, feed costs and demand.
Another major HPAI outbreak or continued aMPV problems could quickly change the production outlook. At the same time, elevated corn and soybean meal prices could tighten margins even as the industry raises more birds.
For now, however, the improvement in bird numbers, production, exports and producer returns offers evidence that the U.S. turkey sector is finally moving toward recovery after two difficult years.
Photo Credit: American Farm Bureau Federation