2024 Hard Winter Wheat Tour Final Average Yield Estimate: 46.5 BPA

May 17, 2024

By Jason Jenkins

The Wheat Quality Council's Hard Winter Wheat Tour concluded Thursday, May 16, in Manhattan, Kansas. After three days, scouting 449 fields across the state and some into neighboring Nebraska and Oklahoma, the total weighted average yield for hard winter wheat was estimated at 46.5 bushels per acre (bpa), a 55% increase from 2023.

Last year, the average yield estimate for the 2023 winter wheat tour was 30.0 bpa.

Based on May 1 conditions, Kansas's 2024 winter wheat crop is forecast at 268 million bushels, up 33% from last year's crop, according to USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. Average yield is forecast at 38.0 bpa, up 3 bushels from last year.

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Video: Midwest Weather Shock: Flash Drought Turns Into Heavy Rain Threat This Week (2026 Forecast)

A rapidly changing Midwest weather pattern is unfolding in 2026 as areas that recently slipped into abnormal dryness and flash drought conditions are now facing the threat of heavy rain and repeated storm systems.

After a wet spring erased early drought conditions, regions across Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and northern Missouri have quickly dried out again since mid-to-late May. Soil moisture is dropping fast, and crops like corn and soybeans are beginning to feel the stress of rising temperatures and lack of consistent rainfall. Now, weather models show a major shift.

A developing system moving in from the Northern Plains is expected to bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for locally heavy rainfall across the Midwest. While some areas may miss out, others could finally see much-needed relief from the growing dryness. In this video, we break down:

Current drought conditions across the Midwest

Why a flash drought is developing quickly

Timing and path of incoming storm systems

Which states are most likely to see heavy rain

How long this wet pattern could last

Will this rain end the drought or create new flooding risks? Watch the full forecast to find out.