Canadian farmers will plant more canola in 2026, although lower yields mean production and ending stocks will fall, according to Agriculture
Canada’s first new-crop supply-demand estimates released Wednesday.
Meanwhile, barley and wheat (excl durum) area is expected to increase, while durum declines and oats hold about steady.
Ag Canada is forecasting this year’s canola planted area at just over 22 million acres, up 2% from 2025 and potentially the highest since 2021 when 22.27 million acres went into the ground. The expected increase was attributed to “crop rotation considerations, waning prices for other crops, and strong domestic demand.”
But with the average yield forecast to drop back to 38.7 bu/acre from 44.7 bu in 2025, production is forecast at 19.2 million tonnes, 12% below last year’s record high of 21.804 million. The smaller crop is projected to more than offset a heavy old-crop carry-in, meaning the total new-crop supply of 22.05 million would fall below the 2025-26 total supply of 23.501 million.
Given the expansion in processing capacity, domestic crush is expected to rise to a new record of 12.5 million tonnes in 2026-27, pressuring total exports to 7.5 million, Ag Canada said.
New-crop ending stocks are seen at 1.65 million tonnes, 40% below the current forecast for 2025-26 of 2.75 million, but still slightly above the 2024-25 stocks level of 1.597 million.
The average 2026-27 canola price is seen at $640/tonne, down from $665 for the current year and $677 in 2024-25.
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