Canada’s wheat production will fall from a year ago as both harvested area and average yields decline, according to Statistics Canada’s first production estimate for 2026.
Statistics Canada on Wednesday estimated 2026 national all-wheat production at 36.122 million tonnes, down 10.9% from the upwardly revised 2025 crop of 40.562 million tonnes. Despite the year-over-year decline, the projected crop would remain historically large, exceeding production in every year since 2010 except 2013 and 2025. The estimate was close to Agriculture Canada's August supply-demand forecast of 36.271 million.
For 2025, the all wheat production estimate was bumped up from the previous view of 39.955 million.
The 2026 national average all wheat yield is forecast at 53.6 bu/acre, down 5.6% from the record 56.8 bu last year. The 2026 yield would nevertheless remain above the recent five-year average, reflecting generally favourable growing conditions through much of the growing season.
Lower acreage is also contributing to the smaller crop. Canadian farmers seeded 25.506 million acres of wheat this year, down from 27.032 million acres in 2025, while harvested area is projected at 24.762 million acres, a 5.6% decline from 26.231 million acres.
As with canola, the final size of the Western Canadian crop remains uncertain following heavy rainfall and persistent harvest delays across the Prairies. StatsCan’s final 2026 production estimates will be based on a farmer survey – versus today’s model-based projections – and will be released in December.
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