Farmers felt the pinch in 2025 when canola, in all its forms, was shut out of the Chinese market. A clear pattern has emerged: canola is often the first pawn sacrificed on the international geopolitical chessboard. Our industry continues to pivot, looking inward for solutions amid turbulence in global markets. The Canadian biofuels sector is well positioned to strengthen the market resilience the canola industry urgently needs.
TAKING ONE TOO MANY FOR THE TEAM
The Canola industry in Canada is no stranger to trade tension as a trade-exposed industry. However, the geopolitical impact of Canada’s relationship with China, its largest buyer of canola seed, was felt more intensely following the latest anti-dumping claim as canola seed exports to China tumbled from 5.9 million metric tonnes (MT) to 2.1 million MT in 2025. Clearly, the reliance on the Chinese market has put the industry in a precarious position as it is difficult to replace a market that could take almost 6 million tonnes of canola seed. This trade issue is only one example of the nature of the global trade environment. Protectionism is increasing on many fronts, creating turbulent conditions for export commodities.
CHANGING THE STRATEGY
To build resilience, the canola industry will need to continue expanding markets. The industry responded by investing billions to expand crush capacity and value-added processing here in Canada. Soon we will be able to crush about 75 per cent of the seed grown in Canada.
We are already seeing oil and meal exports surge. However, most of this growth is not driven by food demand but by industrial uses, namely biofuel production. Canola oil produced from one out of every three acres grown in Canada ends up in a biofuel production facility somewhere in the world. To build resilience in the market, we must establish a core domestic market.
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