By Dr. Andrew Griffith
The July 1, 2026, cattle inventory report was released at the end of July. This report is not as comprehensive as the January 1 report, but the mid-year report does contain valuable information as it relates to the size of the calf crop and heifers retained for breeding. Thus, this is an appropriate time to evaluate the numbers and discuss what is likely to happen in the second half of the year.
All cattle and calves were reported at 94.2 million head compared to 94.0 million head one year ago. The quantity of beef cows declined 200,000 head from last July and totaled 28.45 million head while the quantity of milk cows increased 200,000 head to 9.65 million head. The quantity of dairy cattle is important as many of these animals are being bred for beef x dairy cross calves, and those calves will make their way to a feedlot sooner rather than later. The total quantity of heifers 500 pounds and over increased 100,000 head from last year to 14.7 million head. This includes 3.8 million for beef cow replacement and 3.6 million for milk cow replacement, which are both 100,000 head more than one year ago. The “other heifers” category declined 100,000 head to 7.3 million head.
The quantity of steers 500 pounds and over increased 100,000 head to 13.9 million head compared to last year while the quantity of bulls 500 pounds and over and heifers, steers and bulls under 500 pounds did not change from the previous year and were 1.9 million and 25.6 million head, respectively. The 2026 calf crop was estimated at 32.5 million head, which is a decline of 496,000 head compared to 2025 while the quantity of cattle on feed increased 200,000 head to 13.2 million head.
There is not enough space in this article to discuss everything, but there is enough space to hit the high points. Beginning with heifers for beef cow replacement, this will be highly variable throughout the country as to the producers who will be able to retain breeding females. One thing that seems certain is regions experiencing drought now and into the fall months will not increase their heifer retention rate to grow the beef cattle herd. Alternatively, regions with good forage conditions and room to expand will likely grow beef cattle herds at a fairly rapid pace. Thus, the 100,000 head increase in heifer retention as beef cow replacements will seem like it is much higher than 100,000 head in some areas while other areas will see a continued reduction in the quantity of beef cows.
Source : tennessee.edu