Soybean futures were sharply higher and corn fell hard on Tuesday following the release of the USDA’s monthly supply-demand update which contained surprising revisions to US planted and harvested area estimates.
Corn tumbled as the USDA revised 2025 US corn harvested area up 1.9 million acres from last month to 88.7 million. Combined with a 7.8 bu higher yield estimate to 188.8 bu/acr, production increased to a record 16.742 billion bu. Ending stocks for 2025-26 were revised higher as well, up 457 million bu from last month to 2.117 billion — the largest carryout since 2018-19. The heavier outlook was more than offset some positive demand news, as the USDA reported a private export sale this morning of 315,488 tonnes of corn to Mexico.
With the increase in US corn area, the USDA slashed its soybean harvested area estimate by a massive 2.4 million acres from last month to 80.1 million. The average yield was bumped higher from last month but production still declined amid the acreage fall. Ending stocks were dropped 20 million bu from last month to 290 million. September beans jumped 21 cents to $10.12 ¾, and November was up 21 ½ cents at $10.32.
For wheat, the USDA tightened US and global ending stocks from last month, while slightly lowering the 2025 US production estimate. However, the bearish news in corn weighed heavily on the market, pushing it to losses. September Chicago dropped a dime to $5.05, and September Kansas City lost 8 ¼ cents to $5.10 ¾. September Chicago Hard Red Spring fell 1 ½ cents to $5.18 ½, and September Minneapolis eased a ½ cent to $5.77 ¼.
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