Minnesota farmers have already been responding to drought and warmer temperatures. So far, these conditions are manageable. However, the risk of more extreme growing conditions is increasing.
Although weather variability is inherent to farming, research about trends in our future weather patterns indicates that planning for change, such as more drought, warmer temperatures, and increased precipitation, makes good business sense.
Long-term planning for seasonal changes
While data about the long-term trends of future growing seasons are available, it can be challenging to use future data to decide what to plant, how to manage water, which pests to manage, and when to make the switch.
One approach for long-term planning is to use analogs. A climate analog finds a county that currently experiences the same average temperature and rainfall patterns that your county is projected to have by the middle of the century (2040-2060). These analogs may also share some crops that are grown in each location.
Importantly, the climate analogs approach means that we don’t have to wait and guess about how to adapt to future weather and climate challenges. For example, we can learn about what crop varieties, what infrastructure, and what pest prevention are smart investments for us in Minnesota, based on what our analogs know from first-hand experience
Source : umn.edu