A new study by an international team of researchers connects drought across the world’s wheat-growing regions with global markets and suggests that 3°C of warming could triple average wheat prices relative to 2010.
A drought in one agricultural region can damage harvests. But what happens when severe water shortages affect several of the world’s major wheat-producing regions at the same time or follow one another over successive years? An international team of scientists has brought together climate observations, crop geography, global commodity prices and dozens of climate-model simulations to address this question. Their study reveals a strong connection between the extent of severe water scarcity across wheat-growing regions and the global price of wheat – a link that could become increasingly important as the planet warms.
The study, published in Earth’s Future, focuses on wheat because of its exceptional importance to the global food system. IIASA researchers contributed to the refinement of the research question and framing of the study, as well as providing advice on the modeling approach and data choices.
Wheat is grown across more land than either rice or maize, is a major source of calories and protein, and is one of the most internationally traded agricultural commodities. Much of it is also grown under relatively water-limited conditions. Until now, assessments of climate-change impacts on food prices have often concentrated on gradual changes in average crop yields. The new study, however, addressed a different question: Can the extent of drought during crop growth explain global cereal prices?
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