Corn and Soybean Markets Shrug Off Bearish USDA Figures

Sep 17, 2025

By Joe Janzen

The latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released last week on Friday, September 12, contained multiple bearish indicators for US corn and soybean prices. Despite a negative price reaction in the immediate wake of the report release, new-crop corn and soybean futures prices were up on the day. This article considers what this price reversal might imply about market consensus on current supply and demand fundamentals. Generally, corn and soybean prices have been resilient despite elevated levels of negative sentiment around both demand and supply, including the prospect of record US yields for both crops.

All the Bearish News

Corn and soybean yield estimates were the most closely watched numbers in the September WASDE report, but USDA updated several items on their US corn and soybean balance sheets shown in Table 1 with most of the changes increasing available supply or decreasing quantity demanded — both bearish for new-crop prices.

Perhaps the most surprising shift was the massive increase in corn acreage. Area planted was increased from 97.3 to 98.7 million acres. While our previous analysis (Franken and Janzen, 2025) of farm program acreage sign-ups did suggest more corn acres than were in the earlier August report, the size of the observed change was unexpected. Soybean acres were also increased from 80.9 to 81.1 million, a smaller but similarly unexpected change.

Yield estimates were reduced as many analysts anticipated, but more acres entirely offset the impact of yield cuts on overall corn production. The observed 2.1 bushel per acre cut in corn yield would typically be viewed as bullish. However, market analysts expected larger decreases for both corn and soybeans, so lower yields may be viewed as negative for price relative to what could have been. Recent dry weather in much of the US Midwest, especially the eastern corn belt, has taken a bite from yield expectations.

More limited changes were seen to corn and soybean use. Soybean export use estimates declined further to reflect the continued absence of demand from China for new-crop US soybeans. Perhaps the only bullish component of the report was the increase in expected corn exports. 2025/26 US corn exports are projected to be nearly three billion bushels, a 100-million-bushel increase from the August report.

Source : illinois.edu

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