Last year, hog prices spent a good part of summer and early fall above $100/cwt. Early in this year the futures market was betting this summer would also see numerous weeks of $100 plus prices. At the start of February 2026, the May, June, July and August contracts were each trading above $100/cwt with the July contract above $110/cwt.
Currently the futures market is more reserved. Hog futures currently indicate carcass hog prices will only rally to $100/cwt by July-August. On Friday no 2026 contracts closed above $100.50/cwt.
These lower price expectations are not due to a big jump in hog slaughter. The market hog inventory on March 1 was only 0.6% larger than last year.
The June 2026 lean hog futures contract is trading $1.30/cwt below the June 2027 contract, but July and August 2026 contracts are trading above their 2027 counterparts.
Hog prices averaged $63.41/cwt in 2024 (liveweight). Hog prices in 2025 averaged $68.80/cwt, the highest since 2022. USDA has forecast average liveweight hog price at $68.38/cwt for 2026, only slightly lower than last year. USDA is forecasting $67/cwt for the average price in 2027.
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