A new report puts numbers onto the economic harms the Saskatchewan Economic Assessment Tribunal believes will be visited on the province by a proposed oil and gas emissions cap and Methane 75 regulations.
“This is about evidence, it’s about independent evidence, and it’s about evidence that we need to challenge federal damaging policies which the federal government cannot actually constitutionally mandate,” said Justice Minister Bronwyn Eyre on Tuesday.
The tribunal looked at the impacts by 2050 on oil and gas production, GDP, employment, government revenue, royalty and tax revenue, compliance costs, and oil and gas investment. It found a wide range of possible impacts.
The report estimated that oil and gas production would see a 7 to 52 per cent reduction by 2050, and a 1.5 to 6.4 per cent reduction in provincial GDP for a cumulative reduction of $34.5 to $230 billion.
Employment in Saskatchewan could see a reduction of 12,785 to 34,000 jobs, and estimated government revenues would be negatively impacted by $1.1 to $2 billion, for a cumulative negative impact total of $9.2 to $43.3 billion by 2050, and royalty and tax revenue could have a cumulative negative impact of $3.2 to $7.1 billion in that time period.
The tribunal estimated the compliance costs could rise to a cumulative $8.9 to $67.3 billion by 2050, and the negative impact to oil and gas investment by 2050 could get to a cumulative $19.5 to $45.8 billion.
Report provides ‘powerful evidence
Eyre called findings from the report dramatic, saying the regulations just add costs to the sector for the sake of adding costs.
She also pointed out, as she has many times before, that her government believes natural resources are a purely provincial jurisdiction and the federal government is trying to push in.
Eyre said it’s the provincial government’s job to keep an eye on harms like these.
“Quebec would do it, so why can’t Saskatchewan? If we don’t say it and highlight the problem, and highlight the harm, who does?” asked Eyre.
She said the report will serve as “powerful” evidence but wasn’t specific on what the provincial government will do with the information. The minster said there are several possibilities, like another reference case or a judicial review of the regulations.
“It arms us with very strong evidence to make that case that not only is this constitutionally unacceptable and untenable, but it’s also deeply harmful to the province of Saskatchewan,” said Eyre.
She said this doesn’t mean the oil and gas industry shouldn’t have any regulation at all, and again pointed to the separation of jurisdictions between the governments. She also spoke several times about headway the province has already made in reducing emissions.
The federal regulations are not finalized yet, the tribunal’s report is based on draft regulations. The final regulations are expected to be presented this fall.
Click here to see more...