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Ag Quick Take: Crop Plantings/Emergence Trends Point to Still Large Crop

Quick take on this week’s Crop Progress with planting season entering later innings. USDA weekly Crop Progress report shows 86% of corn planted (flat year/year, (+3% vs. recent average) and 60% emerged (-5% year/year, +2% vs. recent average). For soybeans, 79% have been planted (+4% year/year, +11% vs. recent average) and 49% emerged (+1% year/year, +9% vs. recent average). Corn acres are now down slightly year/year through Week 8 though soybean acres continue to run well above prior year, based on our estimates. Acreages for both running above recent averages.

Through Week 8 of plant, Corn acres running 4% behind last year, soy 8% ahead based on our estimates; planting progress for both continues to run well ahead of recent averages.

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Black Sea Peace Deal?

Video: Black Sea Peace Deal?

The top headline news this week was Turkey looking to organize another grain corridor for Black Sea exports, Putin initially rejecting the thought than saying it is possible and by the end of the week a U.S. envoy is travelling to Russia to convince Putin to stop the war. U.S. soybean crop conditions have fallen more than expected as a hot/dry/and finish could weigh on final yields. Will modernization USDA help + Sept. 24 Xi/Trump meeting + commodities outperforming stocks + CFTC.