Canadian food prices are expected to rise between 2.5 and 4.5 per cent in 2024, according to a new report.
“It is probable that Canadians will continue to experience the strain of food inflation compounded by increasing costs of housing, energy and various other expenditures,” says Canada’s Food Price Report 2024, an annual joint effort between Dalhousie University, the University of Guelph, the University of British Columbia and the University of Saskatchewan.
Why it matters: The annual report sums up grocery buying experience and food trends each year and indicates what Canadians can expect in the coming year.
Next year’s food bill for a family of four is estimated at $16,297.20, an increase of $701.79 compared to 2023.
Sylvain Charlebois, project lead, professor and director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University, said the numbers suggest that two major disruptions of recent supply chains, the global pandemic and the war in Ukraine, have largely been absorbed by global food markets.
Grocers are responding to the return of some stability by running promotions and engaging in stiffer competition.
“It is much easier for them to plan,” Charlebois said.
Last year’s report forecast a five to seven per cent increase in food prices this year. The current rate is 5.9 per cent, according to Consumer Price Index data.
The increase from 2022 to 2023 was attributed to enduring COVID-19 supply chain problems, climate change, carbon taxes, the conflict in Ukraine and labour disruptions.
Charlebois expects food inflation to continue to fade throughout 2024.
“The sweet spot for food inflation is 1.5 to 2.5 per cent,” he said. “We’re not there yet, but I think we will be there by the end of 2024.”
Still, Canadian consumers have been hard-pressed in recent months regarding food prices.
There were nearly two million visits to food banks in Canada in 2023, a 32 per cent increase over the previous year.
“This is the highest level of food bank use in Canada on record,” stated the report.
Accusations of price gouging by grocery companies has become common, but a Bank of Canada study shows markups are in line with inflation rates.
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