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Global Hotspots Where Drought Poses the Greatest Threat to Crop Production Mapped

As temperature and precipitation fluctuations continue to influence crop production worldwide, it is important to understand where crops are most vulnerable to these environmental stressors.

A new study from the University of Delaware's Kyle Davis quantified global patterns of rainfed and irrigated crop-specific drought sensitivity and drought-associated production losses for 17 major crops, including rice, corn, wheat and soybeans. These crops account for three-quarters of the world's food production.

The paper, "Addressing global hotspots of drought-related crop production losses," was published in Nature Communications. Marta Tuninetti, an assistant professor in the Department of Environment, Land and Infrastructure Engineering at Politecnico di Torino in Turin, Italy, served as co-lead author.

Davis, an associate professor with joint appointments in UD's Department of Geography and Spatial Sciences and Department of Plant and Soil Sciences and a resident faculty member in UD's Data Science Institute, said the goal was to develop a set of metrics to assess the resilience or sensitivity of different crops to droughts.

They differentiated between rainfed and irrigated crops and found that rainfed crops are more sensitive to climatic conditions. During a drought, irrigated crops can still receive water through sprinklers, canals or hoses, helping yields remain stable or even increase. Rainfed crops, however, do not have that luxury.

As a result, the researchers identified what they call drought-sensitive hotspots across the planet—areas particularly susceptible to drought. These areas include portions of the Midwestern United States, eastern Brazil, eastern Spain, and central and northern India, among others.

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Trending Video

Midwest Weather Shock: Flash Drought Turns Into Heavy Rain Threat This Week (2026 Forecast)

Video: Midwest Weather Shock: Flash Drought Turns Into Heavy Rain Threat This Week (2026 Forecast)

A rapidly changing Midwest weather pattern is unfolding in 2026 as areas that recently slipped into abnormal dryness and flash drought conditions are now facing the threat of heavy rain and repeated storm systems.

After a wet spring erased early drought conditions, regions across Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and northern Missouri have quickly dried out again since mid-to-late May. Soil moisture is dropping fast, and crops like corn and soybeans are beginning to feel the stress of rising temperatures and lack of consistent rainfall. Now, weather models show a major shift.

A developing system moving in from the Northern Plains is expected to bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for locally heavy rainfall across the Midwest. While some areas may miss out, others could finally see much-needed relief from the growing dryness. In this video, we break down:

Current drought conditions across the Midwest

Why a flash drought is developing quickly

Timing and path of incoming storm systems

Which states are most likely to see heavy rain

How long this wet pattern could last

Will this rain end the drought or create new flooding risks? Watch the full forecast to find out.