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Global Hotspots Where Drought Poses the Greatest Threat to Crop Production Mapped

As temperature and precipitation fluctuations continue to influence crop production worldwide, it is important to understand where crops are most vulnerable to these environmental stressors.

A new study from the University of Delaware's Kyle Davis quantified global patterns of rainfed and irrigated crop-specific drought sensitivity and drought-associated production losses for 17 major crops, including rice, corn, wheat and soybeans. These crops account for three-quarters of the world's food production.

The paper, "Addressing global hotspots of drought-related crop production losses," was published in Nature Communications. Marta Tuninetti, an assistant professor in the Department of Environment, Land and Infrastructure Engineering at Politecnico di Torino in Turin, Italy, served as co-lead author.

Davis, an associate professor with joint appointments in UD's Department of Geography and Spatial Sciences and Department of Plant and Soil Sciences and a resident faculty member in UD's Data Science Institute, said the goal was to develop a set of metrics to assess the resilience or sensitivity of different crops to droughts.

They differentiated between rainfed and irrigated crops and found that rainfed crops are more sensitive to climatic conditions. During a drought, irrigated crops can still receive water through sprinklers, canals or hoses, helping yields remain stable or even increase. Rainfed crops, however, do not have that luxury.

As a result, the researchers identified what they call drought-sensitive hotspots across the planet—areas particularly susceptible to drought. These areas include portions of the Midwestern United States, eastern Brazil, eastern Spain, and central and northern India, among others.

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