Grain Stocks Close to Trade Ideas

U.S. grain stocks as of March 1 came in largely as the trade expected. 

A USDA quarterly grain stocks report on Tuesday showed corn stocks in all positions totaled 9.02 billion bu, up 11% from a year earlier. That was just under the average trade guess of 9.036 billion bu, but still confirmed the market’s expectation for a hefty old-crop supply cushion.  

Of the total, 5.43 billion bu were held on farms, up 21% from last year, while off-farm stocks fell 2% to 3.59 billion. At the same time, corn use remained strong, with December-through-February disappearance at 4.28 billion bu, up from 3.93 billion a year earlier. 

March 1 soybean inventories were pegged at 2.10 billion bu, up 10% from a year ago and slightly above the average trade estimate of 2.063 billion. On-farm soybean stocks were estimated at 900 million bu, up 3%, while off-farm holdings rose 16% to 1.20 billion bu.  

Unlike corn, however, soybean usage was softer, with quarterly disappearance totaling 1.18 billion bu, down 1% from the same period last year. 

All-wheat stocks were reported at 1.30 billion bu, up 5% from a year earlier and very close to the average trade expectation of 1.295 billion. On-farm wheat stocks slipped 3% to 298 million bu, but off-farm stocks climbed 8% to 1.00 billion. Wheat disappearance during the December-to-February quarter reached 377 million bu, up 12% from a year earlier.