How Healthier Diets and Less Food Waste Could Transform Agriculture
A worldwide shift toward healthier eating habits, higher agricultural productivity, and cutting food waste by 50% could significantly reshape global agriculture by 2050, according to a study published in the May issue of Nature.
Researchers estimate these changes could reduce global farmland by nearly 6%—an area roughly the size of India—while lowering the value of livestock production by 42%, or about $630 billion.
The study found that adopting the EAT-Lancet Commission's dietary recommendations would reduce demand for meat and increase the production of fruits, vegetables, legumes, and nuts.
Lower meat consumption would also decrease the need for feed crops such as corn and soy, making it possible to repurpose large areas of grazing land for other uses.
“This work underlines that the scale of this change is huge and the policy ambition has to be commensurate with the challenge,” said Matthew Gibson, former postdoctoral associate in the Food Systems and Global Change research group in the Cornell CALS Ashley School of Global Development and the Environment.
“We have to think about a coordinated push involving governments, industry and consumers alike.”
The researchers also project that agricultural greenhouse gas emissions could decline by about one-third, while water consumption and fertilizer use would decrease, delivering additional environmental benefits.
“But it’s not a linear path from A to B. It won't be nice and tidy,” Gibson said. “We were trying to tease out the facets that make it messy and put numbers on how sectors might shrink or grow.”
“Often these kinds of changes are presented as relatively small or easy because in principle anyone can adopt a healthy diet, which overstates the impact of individual choice,” Daniel Mason-D’Croz, senior research associate said.
“There will be pain points and potential losses. We have to find ways to compensate and incentivize farmers and ranchers to make these huge changes. If we want multifunctional food systems, we need multifunctional payments beyond those linked to agricultural production,” said Professor Mario Herrero.
“If we want to transform the food system for the better," Gibson said.
"To improve health, reduce waste and have more sustainable production, you have to make it happen. Without bold and inclusive intervention, the food system may well transform, but in a way the does not serve people or the planet.”
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