The USDA has slightly reduced its 2026 production forecast for red meat and poultry to 108.281 billion pounds, with decreased red meat output more than offsetting increased poultry production. According to the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released Wednesday, pork production dipped 79 million pounds to 27.876 billion pounds, based on official data from the first half of the year, combined with a reduced slaughter pace and marginally lighter carcass weights during the third quarter.
A slower rate of steer and heifer slaughter through the end of the year has beef production down to 24.967 billion pounds, 321million pounds lower than last month’s report. Meanwhile broiler production has been raised to 49.623 billion pounds, reflecting recent slaughter data. Turkey production was also raised on recent slaughter and hatchery data to 5.100 billion pounds, and egg production was lowered to 9.109 billion pounds, based on data reported through June.
For 2027, total red meat and poultry production has been lowered to 108.845 billion pounds. Pork production is unchanged at 28.135 billion pounds. Broiler, turkey and egg production were also on par with last month, while beef was decreased to 24.980 billion pounds, as a slower pace of marketings is reducing total steer and heifer slaughter, and more than offsetting increased placements in the first half of the year.
Third quarter barrow and gilt prices are projected to average $70, up $1 from the July report, while Q4 hogs are forecast an average $59, also up $1 from last month's report. Q1 2027 barrows and gilts are unchanged from last month at $62, and Q2 2027 hogs are anticipated to average $68.
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