It is “exceptionally unlikely” that the normal rules of global trade will be restored in January 2029, when United States President Donald Trump exits the White House, says an agricultural economist from Ontario.
Trade chaos and uncertainty could persist for years, maybe decades.
So, Canada must respond to the new realities of international trade — where countries ignore the established rules, trade disputes are commonplace and agri-food is targeted for retaliation.
“We can’t proceed under the assumption that … OK, we’ve got to deal with four years of Trump. (Then) the Chinese economy is going to melt down and they’re going to see the wisdom of western liberal democracy … and it’s all going to be back to the way that it was. That seems exceptionally unlikely,” said Al Mussell, research lead for Agri-Food Economic Systems, a research organization in Rockwood, Ont.
Mussell and Ted Bilyea, another ag economist with Agri-Food Economic Systems, published a paper about shifts in global trade in Sept. 2024 — months before Trump became president.
“The facts facing Canadian agri-food are changing deeply. In turn, Canada’s policy approach must change. This is not a problem that can be kicked down the road,” said the final sentence in the paper.
Their report includes a quote from Katherine Tai, the U.S. Trade Representative under President Joe Biden. In September of 2024, Tai said “there is no such thing anymore as free trade”.
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