Hog slaughter is expected to run about 1.5% below year ago levels through fall/winter. Higher feed costs and poor margins are likely to encourage producers to market hogs more aggressively, thus keeping weights at or below year ago levels.
Full Report
The results of the quarterly USDA ‘Hogs and Pigs’ survey came in lower than expected but we cannot say that they are particularly surprising. Prior to the report, analysts were thinking that the inventory of market hogs this fall and coming winter would be only slightly lower than a year ago. That expectation was likely based on the results of the June survey, which pegged the March – May pig crop at about the same level as the previous year. However, there was plenty of evidence that the June survey likely overestimated the supply on the ground, evidenced by the lower slaughter numbers this summer.
According to the latest survey, hog slaughter this fall and coming winter should be down around 1.5% vs. a year ago. Note that USDA did not make a significant downward revision to its Mar-May pig crop but that will likely come once actual slaughter is tabulated. Weekly hog slaughter is down 3.2% y/y since the first week of September, confirming the outlook for lower hog numbers in the near term.
The Jun-Aug pig crop was estimated at 34.508 million, 1.5% lower than a year ago, in agreement with the market hog figures implying a similar decline for slaughter during Dec-Feb period. As for next spring, hog numbers are expected to remain limited given a farrowing estimate for Sep-Nov down 1.8% y/y. Even with more pigs per litter, supply next spring is unlikely to increase.
Could we see an improvement in the supply picture by late spring and summer of 2027? The survey appears to suggest so, with farrowing estimates for the Dec-Feb period up 2.1% vs. a year ago. Couple that with a trend increase in pigs per litter and the survey suggests a potential 3% increase in the pig crop this winter. There is an economic rationale for breeding more sows/gilt this fall and thus get a higher farrowing rate in the winter. Producers have struggled with supply during the summer months in both 2025 and 2026. Disease pressures and weather have been primary factors working against them. Looking at the futures strip for next year, only June, July and August offer producers a positive margin.
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