By Karn Dhingra
Retail pork prices hit record high levels this summer and are expected to remain elevated heading into the holiday season, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service experts said.
In July, average retail pork prices reached the highest point of the year, $5.01 per pound, up from $4.92 a year ago, said David Anderson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension livestock and food marketing economist and professor in the Texas A&M College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Department of Agricultural Economics, Bryan-College Station.
“Supplies remain tight as U.S. pork production has edged lower due to reduced sow numbers, despite gains in productivity per litter,” he said. “Consumers should expect higher prices this fall because production is about the same as last year and we’re not seeing expansion in the herd. “Without more production, prices are going to stay high.”
Pork continues to provide consumer value
Wholesale prices for several key cuts, including hams, pork bellies and trimmings used for sausage are well above year-ago levels, Anderson said.
However, pork loins are a relative bargain at $1.13 per pound wholesale, compared to $1.26 a year ago. Seasonal shifts in consumer demand also shape the market, with ribs and shoulders popular for summer grilling while hams gain momentum in the fall and winter holidays.
Despite the record high prices, Davey Griffin, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension meat specialist and professor in the Department of Animal Science, Bryan-College Station, said pork remains a competitively priced protein when compared to beef and poultry.
Packers and retailers are already booking hams for Thanksgiving and Christmas, with bellies and the bacon market they supply, continuing to hold strong demand, he said.
“Pork is in a good spot right now to provide affordable protein options for consumers, especially with beef prices remaining very high,” Griffin added.
Pork production in Texas
While Texas is not among the nation’s top pork-producing states, the industry plays a role in both commercial and niche markets.
A major operation in the Texas Panhandle supplies hogs to a large processing plant, but most of the state’s production capacity remains small in scale compared to Midwest states, Griffin said. Smaller-scale producers and processors across the state also serve foreign and domestic ethnic markets that prefer lighter hogs for whole carcass or specialty cuts.
While Texas may trail other states in pork production, it does have a unique $50 million-a-year show pig industry serving thousands of youths who raise animals for major stock shows each year. Many of those animals ultimately enter the food chain, while breeding gilts help sustain herds.
Trade influence on prices at home
Exports remain a key driver of U.S. pork demand, but recent tariff disputes have shifted global trade flows. Anderson noted that Mexico is now the largest market for U.S. pork, with 230 million pounds shipped there in June alone. By comparison, exports to China have fallen sharply, from an average of nearly 38 million pounds per month last year to just 4 million in May following retaliatory tariffs.
“Mexico continues to be our strongest partner, while China’s demand has dropped significantly due to trade barriers,” Anderson said. “Those shifts ultimately feed back into the U.S. market and help explain why prices remain firm across most cuts.”
Looking ahead, Anderson and Griffin expect pork prices to stay strong through the holiday season, particularly for hams and bacon, which see peak demand in November and December. While some cuts like pork loins and trimmings may ease later in the year, overall tight supplies and steady demand are likely to keep retail prices near record highs.
“Unless we see a meaningful increase in production, high prices are here to stay into early next year,” Anderson said.
AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:
Panhandle
Hot, dry and windy weather persisted. Soil moisture ranged from short to adequate, and crop conditions ranged from fair to excellent. Wheat preplant activity advanced. Many corn producers ended irrigation as crops reached maturity, while sorghum entered the grain-fill stage. Feed corn harvest was expected soon. Aphids and fall armyworms were reported in some fields. Rangeland was still green, but grass growth slowed as it matured. Cattle remained in excellent condition. Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to excellent.
Source : tamu.edu