The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimated U.S. milk production of 17.1 billion pounds for October, up 0.1 percent from October 2014. Milk cows numbered 9.309 million head, 32,000 head more than October 2014 but 1,000 head less than September 2015. Daily milk per cow averaged 59.2 pounds per head in October, 0.2 pounds below October 2014 and 0.2 pounds below September 2015. The year-over-year decrease in yields for the month of October followed positive changes for all previous months in 2015.
Milk production typically responds to milk and feed prices with a lag of several months. The milk-feed ratio dipped to a low point of 1.95 in April, contributing to lower milk-production growth in the following months. Since April, the milk-feed ratio has risen, reaching 2.29 in October. There has been wide disparity in milk production patterns across the Nation. Drought has contributed to lower milk production in Western States, with a year-over-year October decline of 5.5 percent in California. In contrast, milk production increased by 4.5 percent in Wisconsin. Monthly national wholesale prices for basic dairy products, as reported by USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), moved in mixed directions from October to November. The cheddar cheese price decreased from $1.679 to $1.650 per pound. The nonfat dry milk price (NDM) fell from $0.895 to $0.837 per pound. The dry whey price rose from 23.1 to 23.4 cents per pound. The greatest change was in the butter price, which rose from $2.573 to $2.800 per pound. From September to October this year, commercial exports decreased by 23 million pounds on a milk-fat milk-equivalent basis and by 171 million pounds on a skimsolids milk-equivalent basis. Lactose and whey protein concentrate exports decreased significantly. Notably, exports of NDM rose by 5.1 million pounds, with exports to Mexico making up the largest portion of the increase.
October ending stocks for butter and cheese were substantially higher than for October 2014, by 21.0 percent for butter and 15.4 percent for cheese. In contrast, October NDM ending stocks were 1.5 percent below the previous year
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Source: USDA