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Trade war, heavy rains weigh on Deere & Co.

Deere cut its profit and sales expectations for the year as a trade war between the U.S. and China escalates and farmers try to recover from a planting season besieged by heavy rains.
 
Prices of soybeans targeted by Chinese tariffs last year fell to a 10-year low this week as the countries traded jabs .
 
"Ongoing concerns about export-market access, near-term demand for commodities such as soybeans, and a delayed planting season in much of North America are causing farmers to become much more cautious about making major purchases," Deere Chairman and CEO Samuel Allen said in a prepared statement Friday.
 
The warning from Deere pulled the entire S&P industrial sector down on fears that the nation's largest manufacturers will see similar damage.
 
Deere now expects to earn about $3.3 billion in 2019, down from its forecast three months ago for profits of about $3.6 billion. The company is less optimistic about revenue as well, lowering its forecast of a 7% increase, to just 5%.
 
Company shares slumped 6% to a new low for the year.
 
China has targeted U.S. farmers , particularly soybean farmers, in retaliation for tariffs put in place by the Trump administration. The effects of China's actions have not taken full force in the U.S. Farm Belt.
 
Roughly 60% of U.S. soybeans are shipped to China. But China doesn't begin most of those purchases until the fall. It typically buys soybeans from South American nations such as Brazil and Argentina during spring and early summer.
 
Yet the fight being waged across the Pacific is already hitting U.S. farms.
 
Despite the $11 billion in relief payments that were doled out last year by the federal government, the personal income of farmers declined by $11.8 billion through the first three months of 2019, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. A similar pace of decline is expected in the coming months, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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Is China Buying US Soybeans + USDA Nov 14th Crop Report could be “Game Changing”

Video: Is China Buying US Soybeans + USDA Nov 14th Crop Report could be “Game Changing”


After a week of a U.S./China trade truce, markets/trade is skeptical that we have not seen a signed agreement nor heard much from China or seen any details. There are rumors that China is buying soybean futures & not the physical. Trust in Trump?
12 MMT of U.S. soybean purchases by China by year-end is better than 0 but we all need to give it more time and give it a chance to unfold. China did lower the tariffs on Ag and is buying U.S. wheat and sorghum.
U.S. supreme court could rule against Trumps tariffs, but the Trump administration does have a plan B.
U.S. government shutdown is now the longest in history at 38 days.
But despite a U.S. government shutdown we will be getting a USDA November crop report next Friday and it could be “game changing.” If the USDA provides a bullish surprise with lower U.S. corn and soybean yields and ending stocks that are lower than expected both corn and soybean futures will break out above their ceilings at $4.35/bu and $11.35/bu respectively.
The funds continued their selling in live and feeder cattle futures on continued fears that the Trump administration want to lower U.S. beef prices. The fundamentals have not changed, only market psychology has.
Stocks markets continue to worry about a weak U.S. job market, but you can blame ChatGPT for that. In the future, we will have a more efficient, productive and growing economy with a higher unemployment rate until we have more skilled AI workers.
After 34 new record highs in the S & P 500 and 124 new records in the NASDAQ in 2025 we are back to a correction and investor profit taking as AI valuations may have gotten too stretched near-term ahead of NVDA’s 3rd quarter earnings announcement on Nov. 19th. But this is not an AI bubble.
75% of Tesla shareholders approved a $1 trillion pay package for Elon Musk!
It has rained in South America in the last 7 days, but both the American and European models agree that Central Brazil remains dry in the next 14-days!