Winter wheat acres in western Canada are in danger of remaining at historically low levels while Ontario seedings could be on the rise.
An early harvest should give Prairie growers adequate time to plant winter wheat, but the hot, dry conditions that allowed for a jump start in field operations may well discourage farmers from putting winter wheat in the ground.
“Everyone is saying, ‘I want to see a rain before I seed,’” says Western Winter Wheat Initiative agronomist Paul Thoroughgood.
But his two decades growing the crop tells him don’t wait.
“By the time you’re ready to seed after a half inch of rain, the ground’s dried out again.”
For growers planting into exceptionally dry ground, seed treatments can help establishment, Thoroughgood points out.
Modest recovery
Unyielding dryness could threaten to push acreage below last fall’s nearly 20-year lows of 335,000 acres, but Thoroughgood hopes for a modest recovery to at least 500,000 acres.
Negative markets pushed winter wheat area down the last couple years, but he says signs point to an upswing.
“In a world where there’s lots of protein, all of a sudden protein is not as high a premium, and medium quality wheats like Canada Western Red Winter and CPS [move] a little higher,” Thoroughgood says.
Ethanol plants have also stepped up as less availability of off-spec wheat forces them to offer more competitive prices.
Another advantage to growing winter wheat is that it can help manage building weed resistance to chemicals, Thoroughgood says.
Ontario
Meanwhile, producers in Canada’s largest winter wheat growing province could build on the 970,000 acres they seeded last fall, according to Grain Farmers of Ontario marketing manager, Todd Austin.
A combination of good forward prices for 2019 winter wheat this past July and August and weak soybean values could attract additional acres, Austin says.
Soybean market news remains bearish as trade estimates of 2018 U.S. soybean production rise above United States Department of Agriculture’s August forecast of a record 4.586 billion bushels. Even if China removes its tariffs and returns to buying U.S. soybeans, carryout will be large, Austin says.
He adds that while winter wheat represents a good rotational crop with corn and soybeans, Ontario’s harvest weather will ultimately play a significant role in how many winter wheat acres end up getting planted.
Source : fcc