Yields expected to rebound as moisture returns to the Prairies

MarketsFarm analyst Bruce Burnett is reporting consistently excellent yield potential across the Prairies this year after he logged 3,500 kilometres on a crop tour on his way to Ag in Motion.

“General crop conditions are much better than last year, especially in the southwestern Prairies,” says Burnett, Senior Editor, Markets and Weather. “Crops grown in this region, especially lentils and durum, have significantly higher yield potential than last year.”

Durum yields are estimated to reach 44 bushels per acre, which is up 18 bushels per acre from last year. Using the June sown acreage estimates by Statistics Canada with average abandonment would result in a Western Canadian durum crop of 7.4 million tonnes. If this forecast is achieved this would be the second largest durum crop in the past 10 years after the 2016 crop year.

Spring wheat yields are also expected to be larger than last year at 57 bushels per acre. This yield, if achieved, would be a new record for Western Canada. Spring wheat production is estimated at 27.8 million tonnes, which is up 3.4 million tonnes from last year.

Canola yields and production are expected to be higher than last year with yields forecast at 42 bushels per acre. Given normal abandonment on a planted acreage of 21.9 million acres, production is forecast to reach 20.6 million tonnes. This represents an increase of 2.3 million tonnes from last year’s production.

Although barley yields are expected to be higher this year, overall production is expected to drop due to the large reduction in area. Yields are forecast to reach 74 bushels per acre, which is up 12.6 bushels per acre from last year. Barley production is forecast to reach 8.1 million tonnes in 2024.

The crop assessment occurred in the middle of July and assumes favourable growing conditions for the remainder of the season. The heat forecast for the end of the week will certainly harm crop yields. Other crop perils such as an early frost, poor harvest conditions and detrimental weather during the filling stage of the crops may lower these yield projections.