On average, Canada is warming faster than the global rate
An early forecast from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) predicts a very hot 2026.
The ministry’s latest global mean temperature forecast, which predicts the planet’s average surface temperature, “indicates that 2026 will likely be among the hottest years on record, comparable to 2023 and 2025 and approaching 2024, which remains the warmest year ever observed,” ECCC said in a Jan. 19 release.
For context, the average global temperature in 2023 was about 14.98°C. 2025’s average temperature was between 14.97°C and 15.08°C.
And in 2024 it was about 15.10°C.
Climate Data Canada predicts a 99 per cent chance “that 2026 will be hotter than every year on record prior to 2023 though only a 1% chance that it will break 2024’s record…”
Countries around the world involved with the Paris Agreement committed to taking measures to limit human-caused global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900).
It’s possible the globe will exceed that benchmark this year.
“Based on current modelling, the global mean temperature in 2026 is predicted to fall in the range of 1.35 °C and 1.53 °C above pre-industrial levels, meaning that global temperatures will remain at least 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels for the 13th consecutive year,” ECCC says.
The forecast also predicts that 2026 to 2030 in Canada will be the hottest five-year stretch ever recorded.
That could be because Canada is warming at twice the global rate.
An ECCC report says loss of snow and sea ice in the Arctic “is reducing the reflectivity of the surface, which is increasing the absorption of solar radiation. This causes larger surface warming than in more southerly regions.”
An American climate monitoring organization also predicts a hot 2026.
Berkeley Earth expects this year to be similar to 2025, “with the most likely outcome being approximately the 4th warmest year since 1850, though warmer or cooler outcomes remain possible.”