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Agriculture Faces 25% Farm Income Dip in 2024

By Farms.com

A significant challenge looms for the agricultural community, with the USDA's Farm Income Forecast projecting a substantial 25% decrease in farm income for the upcoming year. Economist Danny Munch from the American Farm Bureau Federation provides essential insights, shedding light on the factors influencing the farm economy. 

Net farm income, a comprehensive measure of farm profitability, is expected to decline from $155 billion in 2023 to $116 billion in 2024, marking a substantial $40 billion or 25% year-over-year drop. This stands as the most significant recorded dollar decrease in net farm income. 

Two primary drivers contribute to this downturn: an expected $21 billion decline in cash receipts, reflecting lower prices received by farmers for their crops and livestock, and a projected $17 billion increase in production expenses, reaching a record-high expenditure of $455 billion for 2024. 

The urgency of finalizing the new farm bill in the current year becomes apparent, as farmers rely on programs like ARC, PLC, and Dairy Margin Coverage to navigate cost increases, market volatility, and rising production expenses. Ensuring the availability of these safety nets is paramount in sustaining a secure domestic food supply amid a substantial decline in farm income.


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USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.