Decline due to Import Tariffs by China and Expected Resumption of Tariffs by India
The 2024-2025 outlook for Canadian dry peas shows a marginal increase in supply, estimated at 3.3 million tonnes (Mt), compared to the previous crop year. Exports are forecast to be 2.1 Mt, which is 0.3 Mt lower than 2023-2024 levels.
This decline is mainly attributed to the imposition of import tariffs by China and the expected resumption of tariffs by India. The potential tariffs have affected Canadian exports, particularly to the U.S., where shipments are lower compared to the same period last year.
Domestic supply remains stable, but with reduced exports and higher domestic use, carry-out stocks for dry peas are expected to rise significantly to 625 thousand tonnes (Kt), much higher than the previous year.
The average price for dry peas in Canada is expected to decline compared to 2023-2024. Green dry peas are forecast to maintain a $200/tonne premium over yellow dry peas, which is slightly higher than the $185/tonne premium in the previous year.
Saskatchewan yellow pea farm gate prices rose by $15/tonne in April, while green pea prices remained unchanged.
Looking forward to 2025-2026, Canadian producers are planning to increase the seeded area of dry peas to 1.42 million hectares (Mha), up by 9% from 2024-2025. Saskatchewan is expected to account for 52% of the seeded area, while Alberta will account for 42%. Production for the 2025-2026 crop year is forecast to increase to 3.1 Mt, driven by the expanded area and average yields. As a result, supply is expected to rise by 13% to 3.77 Mt, despite lower expected exports.
Exports for 2025-2026 are forecast to decrease sharply to 1.3 Mt, and carry-out stocks are expected to reach record levels. The price for dry peas is expected to fall due to higher domestic supply and increasing global production.
In the U.S., the USDA has forecast an 8% decrease in dry pea acreage for 2025-2026, largely due to lower expected plantings in North Dakota and Montana.
This outlook highlights both the challenges of reduced export demand and the opportunities presented by increased domestic supply in the Canadian dry pea market.
This report provides an update to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's (AAFC) April outlook for the 2024-25 and 2025-26 crop years, which run from September1 to August 31 for dry peas. AAFC notes that the projections are based on market conditions and trade policies in effect as of May 13, 2025.
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